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  • March 25, 2022 16:47 | Bryan Baldres (Administrator)

    Everyone you know moved during the pandemic. A new Census Bureau report helps clear up where they left and where they ended up. Here are four takeaways:

    1. Americans chased the sun. Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, Austin, and Atlanta collectively gained 300,000 residents from mid-2020 to mid-2021.

    2. That came at the expense of “superstar cities.” New York, LA, Chicago, and San Francisco lost more than 700,000 people combined over the same time frame.

    3. Growth is heavily concentrated. The 10 fastest-growing counties in the US made up nearly 80% of population growth during the period studied.

    4. Size doesn’t matter. Micro areas, or regions with a core city of fewer than 50,000 residents, reversed their yearslong stagnation by increasing their populations. Kalispell and Bozeman in MT and Jefferson, GA, led the way.

    Big picture: Immigration is the X factor. Immigration levels plunged during the pandemic, which helps explain the population loss in America’s biggest cities. Some demographers say a bump in immigration post-Covid could result in those population declines representing a “blip,” rather than a more permanent trend.—NF



  • March 23, 2022 17:30 | Bryan Baldres (Administrator)

    Economic Data

    Housing Starts for February came in at 1.77 million, beating market expectations of 1.7mm and the prior months revised number of 1.657mm. This was a 6.8% increase month over month, beating expectations of an increase of 3.8% and was also a nice bet of January’s revised 5.5% drop. Single family starts increased 5.7% for the month, at a pace of 1.22 million units. Multifamly starts increased 554,000, which was the highest since January 2020. Building permits for February came in at 1.859mm, beating market expectations of 1.85mm, but came in under January’s revised number of 1.895mm. This was a drop of 1.9% month over month, beating market expectations of a 2.4%, although it was still below January’s 0.7% increase. Housing starts at 1.77 million is the strongest pace since 2006, which is a strong number.

    US initial weekly jobless claims fell to 214,000 for the week of March 12, beating expectations of 220,000, and is a drop of 15,000 from the prior week. Continuing claim for the week of March 5th were at 1.419 million, which is down from the prior weeks 1.49 million, a 71,000 drop. The four week moving average is now at 223,000.

    The Philly Fed Index for March came in at a level of 27.4, which is a strong beat from market expectations of 14.5 and from last month’s level of 16.0. The prices paid index continued to rise at 81.0, compared to 69.3 versus last months, and prices received index also rose to 54.4 versus the prior month’s 49.8. The employment index also climbed to 38.9 versus last months 32.3.

    Industrial Production for the month of February came in as expected +0.5% month over month. Capacity utilization rose to 77.6%, which missed expectations of 77.9%, but is up from last month’s revised number of 77.3%. Manufacturing production came in at 1.2% m/m, a bit higher than expectations of 1.0%, and much higher than the prior months revised number of 0.1%. Production at US factories rose by the most in four month in February.

    Looking at the economic calendar for the remainder of the week, we have Existing Home Sales (Feb) and Leading Economic Indicators (Feb) on Friday.

    Headlines, The Fed, & Other News

    The Bank of England (BoE) increased its benchmark rate for the third consecutive time bringing it to 0.75% from 0.5%. Their statement regarding future rate hikes was a bit muted saying "The Committee judged that some further modest tightening might be appropriate in the coming months, but there were risks on both sides of that judgement depending on how medium-term prospects evolved.”

    The Fed raised the federal funds target rate yesterday by 0.25%, and the hike is the first of several to come. In the Fed’s dot plot, the median projection for the benchmark rate at the end of 2022 is about 1.9%, which is higher than the previous projection by the Fed but it is in line with what the market was pricing in. They are forecasting the target rate to go to about 2.8% at the end of 2023. Chairman Powell did say that every meeting is now a live meeting, looking at the dot plot the Fed is projecting a 0.25% rate increase each meeting in 2022.

    Market Analysis

    The Fed increased rates as expected yesterday, and their projections matched what the market priced into the market. I saw some strategists call it a dovish surprise but it was priced into the market so it shouldn’t have caught too many people off guard. The 10 year did hit 2.24 during the press-conference yesterday, getting very close to 2.25%, which is a level of support on the 10 year. Overnight the 10 year traded as low as 2.10. Looking at an hourly chart, we in a nice uptrend beginning on 3/7 on the 10 year, just something to keep an eye.

    Currently the 10 year is at 2.16, UM30 3.5 in May is up 6/32, and the Dow is up 150 points.


  • January 25, 2022 15:36 | Bryan Baldres (Administrator)

    Last week, we saw the 10-year reach as high as 1.90%, before bouncing back lower. The sell-off we saw in rates this week has seemed overdone for some time, it is tough to say if we will see some consolidation here for a bit or if we will see the sell-off continue. There is an FOMC meeting this week, and it will be interesting what new information we will gather from the meeting as the market is fully anticipating a 0.25% rate hike in the March meeting. Not a bad idea to stay defensive, as this market has continued to be very volatile.



  • December 06, 2021 16:39 | Bryan Baldres (Administrator)

    The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has announced that the base conforming loan limit will increase from $548,250 to $647,200 in January 2022. Due to the loan limit increase, the new high balance limit will also increase to $970,800 (150 percent of $822,375) for one-unit properties in the contiguous U.S.

    Reverse mortgages will also have a national increase in maximum claim of $970,000 -- effective 1/1/2022.

    Refer to FHFA Press Release.

    Note: The loan limit change made in November was a conservative approach to help you be more successful in a competitive market, we will align to follow the FHFA’s announcement.

  • November 08, 2021 16:13 | Bryan Baldres (Administrator)

    As was widely expected, the Fed voted unanimously to keep its target interest rates unchanged, but to begin the process of slowing/tapering its monthly asset purchases.

    After growing its balance sheet from $4.1t to $8.4t since the onset of the pandemic, the Fed announced that it will begin slowing its $120bln in monthly purchases by $15bln per month, beginning this month. Monthly Treasury purchases will initially be slowed from $80bln to $70bln and MBS purchases from $40bln to $35bln.

    In December, purchases will then be slowed to $60bln and $30bln, respectively. If the $15bln per month taper continues in that fashion, purchases will conclude in June 2022 with the balance sheet at $8.8t. The Official Statement provides policymakers with flexibility, noting that the Committee "is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook."

    The persistence of higher-than-expected inflation led officials to provide a slightly less certain inflation assessment in the Official Statement. The previous Statement noted that "Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors." This was changed to say, "Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory" (emphasis added). However, while the Committee is less certain, they continue to believe it will prove transitory.

    As it relates to the supply chain challenges, the Statement notes that "an easing of supply chain constraints [is] expected to support continued gains in economic activity."

    With the taper process now announced, attention will turn to when the first rate hike may occur and how much the Fed will be able to raise its target interest rates. Fed Funds Futures currently project greater than a 50/50 chance of the first rate hike occurring by mid-2022



  • January 06, 2021 09:59 | San Diego Realtist for Democracy in Housing (Administrator)

    HAPPY NEW YEAR REALTISTS!

    As we enthusiastically welcome in 2021, we are pleased to announce the election of Lydia Pope as NAREB's president-elect and speaker pro-tem. Her installation as president will take place during NAREB's 74th National Convention later in the year, but she will be actively involved in NAREB's operations and programs to increase Black Wealth Through Homeownership. 


    #NAREB | #REALTIST | #NAREBADVOCACY2020

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  • December 29, 2020 20:14 | San Diego Realtist for Democracy in Housing (Administrator)
    SDAR_RealEstate_Connections_v4-1

    Dear Member,
    Real Estate Connections is the local source for REALTORS®, and home buyers and sellers. Stay up to date on the latest news relating to our market and industry with information to help you navigate and sustain your business during the COVID-19 health crisis.

    Direct Payments & Unemployment Extension in Approved Relief Bill

    This past weekend President Trump signed the $900 billion stimulus bill into law that will provide direct payments to Americans, additional unemployment benefits, and funding for housing providers and small businesses, including REALTORS®. Among provisions advocated by C.A.R., the bill allows individuals to receive unemployment benefits for up to 50 weeks, through March 13, 2021 in California.

    It also provides an additional $300 per week in federal employment benefits for individuals receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) and traditional unemployment for 11 weeks. In addition, the bill further expands the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) by allowing certain eligible businesses to receive a second PPP loan of up to $2 million.  Read more.

    Stimulus Help

    Due This Thursday! Submit Your Name for the Awards of Excellence

    The application deadline is THIS THURSDAY, December 31 for  the prestigious Awards of Excellence, honoring members in categories including REALTOR® of the Year, Broker of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and more. You may also qualify in our categories for Recognition of Excellence -- applications due Jan. 31 -- which are based on production and sales volume during 2020. All of the winners and honorees in the Circle of Excellence will be announced in 2021. Find out how you can get noticed!

    The Next "Scoop" Will Get You Motivated to Have a Great New Year

    TheScoopPowerHourLogo

    The first "Scoop - Power Hour" virtual briefing for the new year will get you started on the right track! On Wednesday, January 13, at 2:00 p.m., we're pleased to welcome Norm Miller, with USD's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, for an update on the regional market. We'll also host two panels featuring brokers and agents, giving you insight into the ways your peers are getting motivated and thriving during the health crisis. 

    Join us for an hour that could set the tone for your 2021. You can watch via "Facebook Live" on our Facebook page or on Zoom. Register here for January 13, and we'll send you a reminder for the meeting.

    Small Business Relief Offered Through California's Grant Program

    Starting Wednesday, REALTORS® can apply for California’s new relief grant program for small businesses affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The program provides micro grants ranging from $5,000 to $25,000 to eligible small businesses (including independent contractors and sole proprietors) impacted by COVID-19 and the related health and safety restrictions. The grant amount will be based on the business’s annual revenue as documented in its most recent tax return. Learn more here.

    Homebuyer Demand for Mortgage Eases at the End of a Record Year

    What was expected to be a mundane year in the mortgage market was anything but: A sharp downturn in demand for housing at the start of the pandemic took a hairpin turn and just kept rising, and the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage set no less than 15 record lows. Low rates continue to fuel refinance volume, which rose 4% the week before Christmas, and was a stunning 124% higher than a year ago. Read the news analysis from CNBC.

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  • December 01, 2020 15:43 | San Diego Realtist for Democracy in Housing (Administrator)

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    When you submit content or purchase an advertising space you automatically become a member of our Advertising Committee.

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